July 11, 2026
MARKET WATCH
The birth of our nation 250 years ago on July 4, 1776, began with an eloquent document which inspired a new country to attempt to live up to the words “All men are created equal”. We’ve come a long way toward achieving the equality clause even though some feel we still have work to do. Sometimes it takes the views of foreign soccer fans posting on Tik Tok to help us appreciate the lifestyle and plentiful bounty we enjoy here in the USA.
The US stock markets have provided investors with ample reasons to celebrate this weekend and there were many venues from which to choose to enjoy this significant milestone. The markets were not the only place where records were being set as numerous record-breaking temperatures were established across the Central and Eastern US. The record heat didn’t seem to dampen the enthusiasm of holiday revelers as stadiums, parks and beaches were packed and many Americans and foreigners of different persuasions exhibited some much-needed camaraderie.
While all the major indexes finished the first half of 2026 at or near their all-time records, the Russell
2000* deserves special mention, not only because it had by far the best performance of 21.86% year to
date (YTD), but also because small cap stocks tend to outperform and are leaders in the beginning phase of a bull market. The Russell 2000* is the index that tracks small cap stocks. If the tendency of modern bull markets to outlast historical averages is indeed a trend (see related article on page 2) then this bodes well for our current cycle.
The S&P 500* closed mid-year at 7,499.36 and was up 9.55% YTD. Currently the index is near its record high of 7,609.78 set on June 2, 2026. There have been two corrections during this bull market and that is statistically in line with the frequency of the S&P500* and its predecessor’s corrections going back to 1928. The frequency of a correction or decline of 10% but less than 20% for the S&P 500* occurs on average every 19 to 26 months.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)* ended the first half of the year in record territory reaching
52,319.20 for a gain of 8.86% YTD. The NASDAQ* finished the first half at 26,213.72 which was up
12.79% YTD and within striking distance of its most recent record set on June 2, 2026. Insofar as the
number of corrections for the other indexes during this 44-month bull run, the DJIA* has had three
corrections and the NASDAQ* and Russell 2000*, being the more volatile of the indexes, have each had four corrections. What we are witnessing is a period of investment in transformational technology not unlike The Industrial Revolution, the building of the railroads and the advent of the internet. All had their fits and starts, resulted in some overcapacity and created many new businesses as well as some
“irrational exuberance”.
Meanwhile, due to the ability of Iran to threaten oil and other necessities in the Strait of Hormuz, inflation was elevated in May and June varying between 3.4% - 4.1% depending on the index and
whether food and energy were figured in the calculation. With oil once again flowing through the strait, barring any further geopolitical shocks, the Fed can continue to work to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1% according to the third and final first quarter report in late June, which was a positive sign of continued growth. The first estimate of 2nd
quarter GDP will be reported at the end of July. The economy added 57,000 non-farm jobs in June, as artificial intelligence has not become the job destroyer the hype around it inspired. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% - 3.75% during Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair.
A quote from a WSJ editorial regarding the SDA says it all, "The socialist vision of class conflict and everything-for-everybody economics has ruined many countries. Sooner or later socialism crashes into reality, but it can do plenty of damage before it does”. Amen!
OUR PRIVACY POLICY AT JERSEY BENEFITS & HAPPY 4TH OF JULY
At Jersey Benefits Group, Inc. and Jersey Benefits Advisors, we collect and use information from you on applications and other forms as well as information about financial transactions with us and from non-affiliated third parties. This “nonpublic personal information” is obtained in connection with providing a financial product or service to you.
We do not disclose any nonpublic personal information about you without your express consent, except as permitted by law and only to provide services to you. We may disclose the nonpublic personal information we collect to people or companies that perform services on our behalf for your benefit.
We restrict access to your nonpublic personal information and only allow disclosures to people and companies as permitted by law to assist in providing products or services to you. We maintain physical, electronic and procedural safeguards to attempt to protect your nonpublic personal information in all instances. If you have any questions about our privacy policy or how we safeguard your information, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
I do hope you had an enjoyable 250th Independence Day and were able to reflect on the meaning of
the holiday, relax some, and get to your destination without incident, if you were travelling.
If you’d like to discuss your accounts in more detail, set up a contribution plan or have any questions regarding your investments, please feel free to contact me. Enjoy your summer!
LONGEVITY AND EXCEPTION IN MODERN BULL MARKETS SINCE THE 1980'S
The cyclical nature of our equity markets is defined by the alternating rhythms of rising and falling asset
prices. Historically, bull markets are periods characterized by a 20% or greater rise in stock prices from
recent lows and have acted as the primary drivers of long-term wealth creation. However, a structural shift has occurred over the last several decades. Since the early 1980s, S&P 500* bull markets have exhibited unprecedented longevity, outlasting historical averages. While this extension reflects fundamental changes in global economics and monetary policy, it has not been entirely uniform, as a few sharp, short-lived exceptions prove that macro-economic shocks can still truncate even the most robust modern bull markets.
To understand the magnitude of this shift, one must establish a historical baseline. According to Bespoke Investment Group, the average duration of an S&P 500* bull market dating back to 1929 is about 1,011 days, or roughly 2.8 years. If the timeline is restricted to the postWorld War II era, omitting the volatile cycles of the Great Depression, the average extends to nearly 5 years. Whichever baseline is utilized, the era beginning in the 1980s dramatically surpasses these benchmarks. The modern market has been defined not by brief cyclical rallies, but by multi-year bull markets.
The primary evidence of this trend lies in the record-breaking durations of modern bull markets. The post-1980 era boasts the longest secular bull market in American history: the historic tech-boom run that began in December 1987 and culminated in March 2000. This extraordinary period lasted 4,494 days, about 12.3 years, delivering a staggering 582% return. This record-breaking run is particularly remarkable because it weathered a severe downturn in 1990. Driven by the Gulf War oil shock, the S&P 500* plummeted in the summer of 1990, but the drop stopped at exactly 19.9% on a closing basis. By maintaining strict technical precision and avoiding the official 20% bear market threshold, this correction preserved the continuity of the historic twelve year run. Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, the market entered its second-longest run on record. Fueled by low interest rates and massive central bank liquidity, this bull market lasted 3,999 days, or 11 years before a bear market halted it during the 2020 pandemic. Our current AI driven bull market that began in October 2022 has not reached 4 years of age yet, but itcould continue the modern tradition of extended longevity.
Economists attribute the increased longevity to several structuralchanges. The transition of the US
economy toward a technology and service-oriented economy has led to highly scalable, cash-rich corporate giants less vulnerable to traditional downturns. Also, the expansion of global markets and supply chains has diversified corporate revenue streams, but this has also led to vulnerabilities. The Federal Reserve has adopted a proactive monetary policy, with rate cuts or quantitative easing to keep bear markets at bay, but this has also led to criticism of the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Despite this trend toward longer bull markets, the modern era has had exceptions. The early 1980’s
bull was felled by an increase in interest rates to 20%, and the post pandemic bull ended with rate
hikes, both due to rising inflation.
COMPANY INFORMATION
Jersey Benefits Advisors is the trade name used by John H. Kaighn to offer various financial products and services.
34 Doe Dr.
Woodbine, NJ 08270
Phone: (609) 225-4505
Text: (609) 225-4505
Email: kaighn@jerseybenefits.com
http://jerseybenefits.com
John H. Kaighn is an Investment Advisor Representative & Registered Representative of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Securities and Advisory Services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC. Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.
18700 N. Hayden Rd.
Suite 255
Scottsdale, AZ 85255
Osaic Wealth, Inc. is not affiliated with Jersey Benefits Advisors or Jersey Benefits Group, Inc.
Jersey Benefits Group, Inc., is a licensed Insurance Agency in the State of New Jersey & offers Insurance and Third Party Administration Services
34 Doe Dr.
Woodbine, NJ 08270
Phone: (609) 827-0194
Text: (609) 225-4505
Email: kaighn@jerseybenefits.com
http://jerseybenefits.com
All opinions expressed in this newsletter are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. and are solely those of John H. Kaighn and Jersey Benefits Advisors.
*The S&P 500, the DJIA, the NASDAQ and others referenced are unmanaged indexes that are widely used as indicators of Market Trends. Past Performance does not guarantee future results and the
performance of these indexes does not reflect the fees and charges associated with investing. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
*Dollar Cost Averaging through a systematic savings plan is an excellent way to build an account without a sizeable initial investment. Saving a portion of our pay each month is very important.
Company sponsored pension plans and 401k Plans are one method to save and should be used for
retirement. Other systematic investment accounts, such as ROTH IRA’s, Traditional IRA’s, Coverdell
Accounts, 529 Plans, Brokerage Accounts and Annuities can also be opened, and debited directly from checking or savings accounts. For more information, just call to set up an appointment. Referrals
are always welcome.
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*Jersey Benefits Advisors is a trade name for J/M Kaighn, Inc. a corporation registered in the State of New Jersey, and Jersey Benefits Group, Inc. is a corporation registered in the State of NJ.
*John H. Kaighn is a Registered Representative and an Investment Advisor Representative of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Securities and investment advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.
*Insurance services provided by Jersey Benefits Group, Inc., a Licensed Insurance Producer in the State of New Jersey.
*John H. Kaighn is licensed to offer securities through Osaic Wealth, Inc. in the states of DE, FL, IL, MD, NC, NJ, NY, and PA., as well as investment advisory services in NJ. This Website should not be considered a solicitation for securities business or investment advisory services in any other state.
*This web page offers links to other companies. Once a hyperlink is activated, you will be leaving Jersey Benefits Group, Inc., and operate outside Jersey Benefits Group, Inc. Website. Jersey Benefits Group, Inc. is not responsible for the validity, completeness or accuracy of any information provided on those sites to which you may link. Furthermore, Jersey Benefits Group, Inc., Jersey Benefits Advisors and Osaic Wealth, Inc. shall not be liable for any direct or indirect system damage or other problems you may incur as a result of linking to any other website, including any consequences arising from your accessing third party technologies, sites, information and programs made available through Jersey Benefits Group, Inc.
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