July 30, 2020

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Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 27, 2020.

This report certainly confirms the NBER's call that the recession began in February, and gives us two quarters of negative growth, the textbook definition of a recession. While a number like this was anticipated, due to the complete shutdown of many businesses which were considered nonessential, it is by far the worst contraction we've ever recorded. As the economy continues to open up, albeit slowly and unevenly, the economy should continue to crawl out of the abyss and the next economic cycle will be born.

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