MARKET WATCH
As we begin the fourth quarter of 2025, we’re once again enduring a uniquely American creation known as the “government shutdown”. The US government shutdown is an unusual result of its specific legal history and political system. The modern practice of government shutdowns stems from a series of legal opinions in 1980 and 1981 by Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti. These interpretations changed how an older law, the Antideficiency Act, was enforced during a lapse in appropriations.
This act was passed in 1870 to prevent government departments from overspending or initiating contracts before Congress had appropriated the necessary funds. For almost a century after the act's passage, a gap in funding did not automatically cause a shutdown. Government agencies often continued to operate with the assumption that Congress would soon provide funding. Perhaps, it is time for a new interpretation of the Antideficiency Act!
Some good news regarding shutdowns is that since 1976, the S&P 500* has been roughly flat on average during government shutdowns. During the longest shutdown (December 2018 - January 2019), the S&P 500* rose by 10 percent, and twelve months after a shutdown, the S&P 500* has been higher 86 percent of the time, with an average return of 12.7 percent to 13 percent. So, while government shutdowns are an annoyance to most of us and can be a very difficult hardship on those who work for the government, the stock market effect is pretty much benign.
In September 2025, the S&P 500* experienced a positive return of 4.25 percent, continuing a strong year-to-date performance. This performance stands in stark contrast to the historically negative average return for the month, a pattern often referred to as the "September Effect". Based on data spanning roughly the last 80 years, the S&P 500* has experienced an average decline of 0.6 percent since 1945 in the month of September, according to Reuters, and since 2000, the index has averaged a return of -1.6 percent for the month.
The Federal Reserve’s lowering of interest rates by 25 basis points to between 4.00 percent to 4.25 percent in the middle of September certainly didn’t hurt the S&P 500’s* performance. The index closed the third quarter at 6,688.46 and was up 13.72 percent year to date (YTD). The DJIA* finished the quarter at 46,397.89, set a record and gained 9.06 percent YTD. The NASDAQ* had the best performance of the various indexes, as it ended the quarter at 22,660.01 up 17.34 percent YTD. The Russell 2000* finished the quarter at 2,436.48 and gained 9.25 percent YTD. As of the printing of this newsletter on October 2, the DJIA*, NASDAQ* and S&P 500* have all set new records. Now, we get to see what the volatile month of October has in store for us.
Not all the news has been good, as the revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 911,000 fewer jobs were created between April 2024 and March 2025 than were initially reported. The revision indicated that the U.S. labor market was weaker than we thought, with this being the largest downward revision on record. With the shutdown, there will be no employment report released.
Inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target with the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index all indicating an annual inflation rate for the 12 months ending in August being between 2.6 percent to 3.1 percent. Meanwhile, the debate regarding the use of tariffs for leverage in trade continues to be an inflationary concern.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent according to the third and final revision. This is very strong growth for our economy.
The markets have been setting new records, and more stocks have been participating in this rally. With that said, there is a possibility of a correction at any time, especially in the volatile month of October. If we do get a pullback and you have cash, it can be a buying opportunity. If you have questions or concerns, call me.
TEXT MESSAGES ARE NOW ALLOWED USING THIS NEW NUMBER
As many of you already know, the use of text messaging has been an issue causing concern in the financial services industry for several years. The reason for the concern had to do with the inability of text messages to be retrieved for review and compliance by broker/dealers. I am pleased to let you know this is no longer an issue. However, for me to respond to text messages for business purposes, they must go to a different number than my cell phone. So, the number to use for text messages is (609) 225-4505. The good news is this number can also be used for voice calls, as any calls or texts to the new number are simply forwarded to my regular cell phone number.
The reason for the broker/dealer needing to have access to the content of text messages has to do with client protection and making sure no inappropriate sales tactics are being used, like pitching low priced securities, the sale of unregistered products or the use of other dubious sales practices. Unfortunately, due to a few bad actors, everyone must take extra precautions. However, the protection of client assets is of utmost importance to the folks at Osaic Wealth, Inc. and of course to me.
Once again, the new business number to reach me is (609) 225-4505. This number can be used for voice calls, but it must be used for text messages. You can also reach me (609) 827-0194, which is my same cell phone number you have been using for years. If you forget and text me on my cell phone number, I will send a reminder to you to use the new text number. As with anything new, it won’t take long to adjust. Thanks, and sorry for any inconvenience.
WORDS ARE NOT VIOLENCE, VIOLENCE IS VIOLENCE, TONE IT DOWN, PLEASE
I’ve heard it said by many people, especially in the last several years, there is no place for violence in our political discourse. We have come a long way from the revolutionary battles of our early beginning as a country, and we no longer fight duels to settle political differences. However, violence has played a part in our history, and to deny it is folly. I don’t advocate it at this juncture and hope we can, as a country, tone down the rhetoric and try to find ways to communicate effectively.
The use of some of the words being bandied about these days to describe, in derogatory terms, other individuals and groups is complicit in causing some mentally unstable individuals to take violent action into their own hands. You know the terms I mean, words such as nazi, fascist, xenophobe, antizionist, antisemite, homophobe, white-supremist, socialist, communist dictator and others. The context in which they are used, and who gets labelled with the terms, leads me to believe there is a large contingent of people who have no idea of the origin of these terms or their actual meaning. Sadly, they just continue to use and misuse these words, and the rhetoric just continues down thisnegative path where communication becomes nothing more than school yard name calling.
I would hope most of the quotes from our history which follow are recognized by most of you, and hopefully most Americans have heard these quotes in school. Many of them come from various times in our history when words themselves were not always sufficient.
- "Give me liberty, or give me death!" — Patrick Henry
- "When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty." — Thomas Jefferson
- "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." — Edmund Burke
- "Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction." — Ronald Reagan
- "Those who deny freedom to others deserve it not for themselves." — Abraham Lincoln
- "Live Free or Die."--- General John Stark
- The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." — Thomas Jefferson
- "The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it." — John F. Kennedy
- "Freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed." — Martin Luther King Jr.
- “By any means necessary!” --- Jean-Paul Sartre – popularized by Malcolm X
Utah Governor Spencer Cox spoke two days after the murder of Charlie Kirk and stated, "His assassination was not just an attack on one man but was an attack on freedom of speech". He stated a bit later, “Words are not violence. Violence is violence”. Then he went on to quote Charlie Kirk, “When people stop talking, that’s when you get violence”. So, whether you are to the right or left of center, don’t dehumanize those with whom you disagree.
COMPANY INFORMATION
Jersey Benefits Advisors is the trade name used by John H. Kaighn to offer various financial products and services.
34 Doe Dr.
Woodbine, NJ 08270
Phone: (609) 225-4505 Text: (609) 225-4505
Email: kaighn@jerseybenefits.com
http://jerseybenefits.com
John H. Kaighn is an Investment Advisor Representative & Registered Representative of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Securities and Advisory Services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC.
Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.
18700 N. Hayden Rd.
Suite 255
Scottsdale, AZ 85255
Osaic Wealth, Inc. is not affiliated with Jersey Benefits Advisors or Jersey Benefits Group, Inc.
Jersey Benefits Group, Inc., is a licensed Insurance Agency in the State of New Jersey & offers Insurance and Third Party Administration Services
14 Atlantic Ave. Unit B
Ocean City, NJ 08226
Phone: (609) 827-0194
Text: (609) 225-4505
Email: kaighn@jerseybenefits.com
http://jerseybenefits.com
All opinions expressed in this newsletter are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. and are solely those of John H. Kaighn and Jersey Benefits Advisors.
*The S&P 500, the DJIA, the NASDAQ and others referenced are unmanaged indices that are widely used as indicators of Market Trends. Past Performance does not guarantee future results and the performance of these indices does not reflect the fees and charges associated with investing. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
*Dollar Cost Averaging through a systematic savings plan is an excellent way to build an account without a sizeable initial investment. Saving a portion of our pay each month is very important. Company sponsored pension plans are one method to save and should be used for retirement. Other systematic investment accounts, such as ROTH IRA’s, Traditional IRA’s, Coverdell Accounts, 529 Plans, Brokerage Accounts and Annuities can also be opened, and debited directly from checking or savings accounts. For more information, just call to set up an appointment. Referrals are always welcome.
John H. Kaighn
Happy Halloween
