MARKET WATCH
“The entire world now sees what happens to those who spent 47 years shouting, “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”, only to discover suddenly that America and Israel were finally listening and taking notes”. This is a quote from Amit Segal, a prominent Israeli journalist, author, and television personality, widely regarded as one of Israel's most influential political commentators. He wrote this at the beginning of “Operation Epic Fury” and it appears as though after decades of appeasement toward Iran, this worldwide sponsor of terrorism is finally getting its comeuppance.
As a result of the battle raging in the Middle East, oil prices have skyrocketed due to concerns of Iranian missile attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Unfortunately, we’ve felt the effect of this closure at the gas pump where gasoline prices are hovering around $4.00 per gallon. We’ve also felt the effect in the stock market, which has experienced somewhat of a correction. I use the word somewhat in describing the correction because while all the main indexes have shed 10% in March from their all-time highs, the S&P500* has not closed 10% down, but it did drop 10% inter day. Some analysts only use the S&P500* as an indicator of a correction.
At the end of the first quarter, the S&P500* closed at 6,528.52 and was down 4.63% year to date (YTD). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA*) ended the quarter at 46,341.51, dropping 3.58% YTD. The NASDAQ* finished the quarter at 21,590.64, shedding 7.11%, while the Russell 2000* closed at 2,496.37, gaining 0.58% YTD.
The economic picture remains cloudy, primarily due to the federal government shutdown, which spanned 43 days from October 1 to November 12, 2025 and became the longest in U.S. history. Triggered by a lapse in appropriations, it caused the furlough of over 670,000 federal employees and delayed pay for roughly 730,000 others. The shutdown halted many services, including national museums and government statistics reporting. It also reduced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to only a 0.7% increase in the fourth quarter after a 4.4% increase in the third quarter.
The various inflation reports have all indicated that inflation has not fallen to the 2% level, which is the Federal Reserve Bank’s goal, but has plateaued between 2.4% and 3.1% depending on the report and how food and energy prices were calculated. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3%. The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up by 34,000, from +126,000 to +160,000, and the change for February was revised down by 41,000, from -92,000 to -133,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined was 7,000 lower than was previously reported. Overall, the job market and economy are holding up despite a continued political spat over Homeland Security funding and the war with Iran.
The Fed has kept the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, which looks like it was the right move after seeing the jobs report. Keeping expectations for another bout of inflation from taking hold, and confidence in their independence is quite important going forward. While the Executive Branch has every right to cajole the Fed to its way of thinking, and Presidents have over the years, there are reasons for its independence.
As the second quarter unfolds, I am relatively sure the conflict in Iran will run its course and the objectives will become clearer. It is naïve to think this was a willy nilly operation when the scope of the success of our military is observed. Don’t think for a moment the Chinese and Russian governments are not watching in horror as their weapons, being used by Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, have been devastated.
Nobody wants war, but after 47 years of having been called “The Great Satan” by a regime that’s about as authoritarian as it gets, my compassion is for the 93 million Iranian people.
IRA CONTRIBUTIONS FOR 2025, HAPPY EASTER & OTHER Holy DAYS
Individual Retirement Account (IRA) contribution limits for 2025, for which you have until April 15, 2026 to satisfy, remain at $7,000 for individuals under 50. For those who are over 50, the catch-up contribution will allow an additional $1,000 for a total IRA contribution limit of $8,000. However, the IRA contribution limits will increase to $7,500 for the 2026 tax year. It is important to realize these limits apply to both the IRA and the ROTH IRA combined. Insofar as the tax deductibility of contributions to an IRA is concerned, if you or your spouse don’t have a workplace retirement plan, then the entire contribution to the IRA is tax deductible, up to the contribution limit.
If you and/or your spouse are covered by a workplace plan, your eligible deduction limit may be decreased based on your tax-filing status and modified adjusted gross income (MAGI). This is your adjusted gross income (gross income minus tax credits, adjustments, and deductions), with some of those credits, adjustments, and deductions added back in. It's a smart idea in this case to consult a tax professional concerning any questions regarding the amount of your IRA contributions which are tax deductible.
Remember, if you can’t deduct any of your contributions to your IRA, you can still contribute to a ROTH IRA, if you are within the income limits. Or lastly, you can even contribute to your IRA, not take the tax deduction, and then you wouldn’t be taxed on the non-deducted amount contributed to your IRA when you withdraw it.
I hope you had a wonderful Easter, Passover or other spring Holy Day. Call me anytime you need service.
DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS, HISTORICAL DISASTERS AND ENLIGHTENED HOPE
The trial of Socrates in 399 BC remains the ultimate "canary in the coal mine" for democratic societies. While he was officially charged with impiety and corrupting the youth, his true "crime" was exposing the fragile intersection of populism, expertise, and political anxiety. Today, as we navigate a landscape defined by polarized "cancel culture" and a deep distrust of institutions, the Socratic conundrum feels less like ancient history and more like a mirror.
At the heart of the conflict was Socrates’ skepticism of unrestrained majority rule. He famously compared the state to a ship, arguing that a vessel should be guided by a trained navigator (an expert) rather than one chosen by popular whim. To Athenian authorities reeling from military defeat and internal coups, this wasn't just a debate, it felt like sedition. The “Jury of 500” didn't just want to punish a man; they wanted to silence a "gadfly" who made the majority feel incompetent. Subsequently, Athenian democracy succumbed to the dictatorship of Sparta.
This tension between the "will of the people" and "specialized expertise” is the primary "tangled web" of our modern era. On the political Right, a populist surge mirrors another historical crisis as the Roman Republic lost its way and careened toward the authoritarianism of Julius Caesar. When a citizenry believes that every "navigator" on the ship of state is corrupt or part of a "deep state" elite, they tend to look for a strongman to seize the wheel. The danger, as Rome proved, is that burning down the institutions to "save" the people often results in a permanent loss of the very liberty the people sought to protect.
Conversely, the political Left often risks a different historical pitfall: the totalitarian overcorrection seen in the 20th-century descents of Russia and China. In the attempt to dismantle "oppressive" traditional structures and enforce a new moral orthodoxy, the state—or the social collective—can become a new kind of "Jury of 500," punishing dissent and "corruptive" speech with a fervor that Socrates would painfully recognize. This is the "cancel culture" of the Agora moved to the digital square.
The only historical "exit ramp" from these extremes is the outcome of the Enlightenment. The U.S. Founders, deeply read in both the failures of Athens and the collapse of Rome, built a system designed to survive human fallibility. They encoded Socratic questioning into the First Amendment and built "speed bumps" like the Senate to prevent the "ship" from being capsized by the sudden passions of the "crew."
However, the Enlightenment outcome is not guaranteed. It requires a difficult realization from the populist Right: that competence is not a conspiracy. For a ship to sail, some people must actually know how to read the stars, and not every expert is a traitor. Simultaneously, it requires the Left to realize that dissent is not a disease. A society that executes its "gadflies" eventually loses its ability to self-correct.
Unfortunately, an Enlightenment stabilization depends on our ability to value reason over rhetoric. If we cannot find a way to respect the "navigator" while still allowing the "gadfly" to speak, we may find ourselves, like Socrates, holding a cup of hemlock we brewed ourselves.
Company Information
Jersey Benefits Advisors is the trade name used by John H. Kaighn to offer various financial products and services.
34 Doe Dr.
Woodbine, NJ 08270
Phone: (609) 225-4505 Text: (609) 225-4505
Email: kaighn@jerseybenefits.com
http://jerseybenefits.com
John H. Kaighn is an Investment Advisor Representative & Registered Representative of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Securities and Advisory Services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC.
Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.
18700 N. Hayden Rd.
Suite 255
Scottsdale, AZ 85255
Osaic Wealth, Inc. is not affiliated with Jersey Benefits Advisors or Jersey Benefits Group, Inc.
Jersey Benefits Group, Inc., is a licensed Insurance Agency in the State of New Jersey & offers Insurance and Third Party Administration Services
34 Doe Dr.
Woodbine, NJ 08270
Phone: (609) 827-0194
Text: (609) 225-4505
Email: kaighn@jerseybenefits.com
http://jerseybenefits.com
All opinions expressed in this newsletter are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. and are solely those of John H. Kaighn and Jersey Benefits Advisors.
*The S&P 500, the DJIA, the NASDAQ and others referenced are unmanaged indices that are widely used as indicators of Market Trends. Past Performance does not guarantee future results and the performance of these indices does not reflect the fees and charges associated with investing. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
*Dollar Cost Averaging through a systematic savings plan is an excellent way to build an account without a sizeable initial investment. Saving a portion of our pay each month is very important. Company sponsored pension plans are one method to save and should be used for retirement. Other systematic investment accounts, such as ROTH IRA’s, Traditional IRA’s, Coverdell Accounts, 529 Plans, Brokerage Accounts and Annuities can also be opened, and debited directly from checking or savings accounts. For more information, just call to set up an appointment. Referrals are always welcome.
John H. Kaighn
